BREAK BACK STRATEGY
This is a strategy I use on WTA only.
Break Back can be used on any WTA match, grand slams included.
Liquidity will not be an issue as this strategy is In-Play and there will be minimum £30-50K matched by the time you place your first bet.
There are many more breaks of serve in the WTA than in the ATP. Men lose their serve around 23% of the time while the women lose serve 35% of the time.
In a match that lasts 22 games and ends 7-5 6-4, you can expect 7.7 breaks of serve in WTA on average, whereas in the ATP you would expect an average 5 breaks in 22 games.
This strategy takes advantage of that fact by backing a player in WTA who has just lost serve.
The criteria are as follows:
- WTA only
- Back the favourite when they are broken. Statistically, the favourite is much more likely to break back, and break back much more quickly.
- Favourite SP of 1.3 to 1.7 is preferable. When the favourite is below 1.3, their odds will not move enough to make the trade viable. When the favourite’s odds are below 1.3, the market generally remains confident so the price will not move enough to gain the required profit for the strategy to be successful long-term. For anyone new to Betfair, SP refers to Starting Price, the odds of the players before the match goes in-play.
- Not to be used after game 6 in any set because we need time for the break back to occur. Game 7 onwards is too risky, and if the first break occurs in game 8 of any set, the leader is now serving for the set, so the broken player has only one chance to make the break back. It’s best to avoid this situation.
- When you use this strategy first, it’s best used in set one only, due to more predictable odds movements. The strategy is tricky to implement in set 2 because if the favourite won set 1, her odds will be of no value, most likely going below the 1.3 recommended SP. If the underdog has won set 1 and has now become favourite, i do not recommend implementing the strategy on the new favourite because the risk is, again, too much. If the match goes to a third set, the odds will often return close to SP. Therefore, using the strategy in set 3 is justifiable. However, be warned that odds are more volatile in set 3 as we near the match conclusion, so watch the match carefully. Do not trade blindly. Make sure you have a live feed on Sky Sports or Bet365 or wherever you find best.
EXAMPLE:
WTA 1000 DUBAI
FINAL: KALINSKAYA V PAOLINI
I watched the first few games, waiting for the pre-match favourite (Kalinskaya) to be broken, which happens in the 4th game of the match, which is perfect for this strategy.
I place a 50 euro back bet on Kalinskaya (bottom right, below), hoping she would break Paolini in the next 2 service games.
And that’s exactly what happened:
Here is the first set point-by-point, in which there was a second great opportunity to back Kalinskaya after she was broken again in the 6th game and broke back in the 9th game.
Admittedly, this was a small profit, but you can get more than one trade in a match quite easily.
The timing of the bet, which was early in the first set, and the fact that the first break of Kalinskaya was also a break back to level the match, means the odds movement were not quite as significant as other times in the match.
WHEN IF MY PLAYER DOESN’T BREAK BACK?
This happens! We cannot win every time so we must trade out with a loss, but don’t leave it to run too long. As the set nears it’s end, odds become more volatile and you might find you are exposed to bigger losses than necessary.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE FAVOURITE GOES A DOUBLE BREAK DOWN?
There are some scenarios to consider here. have a look at this screenshot from Kasatkina v Krueger in Charleston:
Kasatkina is the favourite and has lost the opening game of the set. In this scenario we would back her at 0-1 to break back, hopefully before game 6 or 7 in the set.
As we can see from the screenshot, Kasatkina is out of sorts and Krueger holds her first service game to love.
Serve now switches back to Kasatkina, and it’s essential that she holds here and has a chance to break back in game 4.
However, she is just not finding her rhythm and loses serve again! In this scenario, we should exit the trade at 0-30 in game 3 to minimise losses. If we allow the score to get to 0-40, the market has assumed the game has been lost and our max loss of around 40% of stake will be exceeded.
If you do not trade out (or cannot trade out) at 0-30 and the score goes to 0-40, you might as well let the trade ride to see if Kasatkina can score a point or possibly make a comeback in the game. You will lose very little by letting the trade run from 0-40 to game lost. In this case, Kasatkina made it 15-40 which minimised losses to some extent.
CONCLUSION
There is normally more than one chance in a match to get a successful trade using this strategy, so don’t be disheartened on your first try if it doesn’t go your way.
have a look at this screenshot from the first morning of the French Open – 7 consecutive breaks of serve:
Use small stakes on your first few tries and you will learn very quickly just how the odds move at specific times in the games. Most of all, enjoy all those breaks of serve, and look forward to the clay season when even the best women’s serves are neutralised by the slow bounce.
FACT: The coefficient of friction: a ball in play will lose 40% of its speed when it bounces on clay, but the same ball, moving a the same speed, will only lose 30% of it’s speed when it bounces on grass.
Good luck with this strategy guys and please mail me with any success stories or questions you might have.
All the best,
Patrick.