Who are the Favourites for the 2024 WTA 500 Event in Mexico?
WTA Guadalajara has been downgraded from a WTA 1000 event to a 500 event in 2024, but is still filled with quality players. Following a Grand Slam is not ideal because lots of top players will take a week off after an event like the US Open, so players such as Sabalenka, Swiatek, Collins and Pegula will be absent. However, there are always a few players who exited early who will view the event as a potential chance to gain prize money and points with some of the bigger names missing.
This is only the third installment of the tournament. The defending champion in Guadalajara is Maria Sakkari who is currently injured and the 2022 champion, Jessica Pegula, will not play meaning we will have a first time champion of the event in 2024.
Quarter one top seed Jelena Ostapenko gets a bye into round two where she will meet Marina Stakusic or Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. Her likely opponent in the quarter final will be Magdalena Frech if the Polish player can overcome Emina Bektas in the first round and American Ashlyn Krueger in the second round.
Quarter two is headed by Caroline Garcia who wont play until round two and will face Kimberley Birrell of Australia or Ena Shibahara of Japan. Garcia, while not at her best, should overcome that challenge to meet Marie Bouzkova in the quarter final. Although Bouzkova is the number 6 seed compared to Garcia at number four, I would make her slight favourite against the Frenchwoman.
Quarter three will see Veronika Kurermetova square off against Lucky Loser Sachia Vickery in the opening round while Victoria Azarenka gets a bye and will face Aleksandra Krunic or Kamilla Rakhimova in the second round. Azarenka and Kudermetova should meet in the quarter final but all will depend on the mindset of Kudermetova who comes into Guadalajara on the back of 4 consecutive losses.
The final quarter will be interesting as Danielle Collins is destined to meet Sloane Stephens in the second round with the winner surely a contender for the title. It will be frustrating for Collins to meet her compatriot so soon in the tournament on what will be her final trip to the event as she retires at the end of the season. Another American, Caroline Dolehide will also have a say in this quarter as she is the one most likely to face Collins or Stephens in the quarter final. She has a difficult draw as she will need to beat Anhelina Kalinina or Renata Zarazua in the second round.
Collins is the current favourite for the title and she is the one most likely to win the most competitive quarter of the draw. She currently sits at 4.1 on the Exchange, followed by Azarenka on 7 and Ostapenko on 7.4
Azarenka is the bet for me because I like her quarter and she has a good path to the semi finals. She could meet Collins in the semi finals but I believe Collins will need to play 3-setters to get to this stage and Azarenka will have the upper hand. Ostapenko, Frech or Bouzkova are potential finalists but I believe in these conditions with this draw, Azarenka has a great chance.