The Art of Trading Tie-Breaks in Tennis:

The Art of Trading Tie-Breaks in Tennis:

BY PATRICK ROSS

Introduction

Understanding Tie-Breaks and Their Role in Tennis Trading

Statistical Insights on Tie-Break Performance in Men’s Tennis

Statistical Insights on Tie-Break Performance in WTA Tennis

The 2 Most Profitable Tie-Break Trading Strategies

Two More WTA-Specific Strategies

Additional Strategies for WTA And ATP

Tie-Break Points To Avoid

Conclusion

Examples

Final Advice

Tie-break Interesting Facts:

• The player who serves first in the set serves first in the tie-break. That player serves only once. Each player then has two serves each before the serve switches back to the other player.
• After the first serve, each player will serve their first serve from the left side of the hash. In normal games, the first serve is taken from the right side.
• Players never switch sides before a tie-break. Sides are switched only at the end of odd-numbered games. The tie-break takes place after the twelfth game so switching sides is not necessary.
• Players switch sides every 6 points during a tie-break. This means there will always be a change of sides in the tie-break because the minimum number of points played in the tie-break is seven.
• Only 4 points are needed to win a normal game but 7 are needed to win the tie-break, but the tie-break must be won by 2 points. This means the match can go beyond the seven-point winning mark. At the Australian Open in 2024 Anna Blinkova beat Elena Rybakina 22-20 in their final set tie-break, one of the longest tie-breaks in history.
• When a score reads 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(5), what does the 5 stand for? Because the set ended 7-6, it was a tie-break and the 5 indicates the score of the losing player in the tie-break. The score in the tie-break in this case was 7-5.
• Mostly seen in doubles tennis, a ‘Super Tie-break’ is a tie-break which ends at 10 points rather than 7. All other rules of tie-breaks are applicable to the super tie-break.
• The tie-break has been in use since 1970 when Jimmy Van Alen proposed the measure to shorten matches somewhat and to add an element of excitement for spectators. No doubt it was a successful move as it’s still used over 5 decades later!

Understanding Tie-Breaks and Their Role in Tennis Trading

In tennis, a tie-break is a game format used to decide a set when the score reaches 6-6 in games. Instead of continuing with traditional games, players compete in a first-to-seven-point mini-game (with a two-point margin required to win as stated). The tie-break eliminates prolonged sets and adds an element of high-pressure intensity, making it a prime target for traders on betting exchanges like Betfair. Due to the short format and rapid point swings, tie-breaks offer excellent volatility for trading opportunities.

Statistical Insights on Tie-Break Performance in Men’s Tennis

Tie-breaks in men’s tennis often favour players with strong serves. The ability to consistently hold serve increases a player’s likelihood of winning, while players with weaker returns struggle to break down their opponents. Key statistical observations include:

• On fast surfaces (grass, indoor hard courts), tie-breaks occur in about 40% of sets.
• On slower surfaces (clay courts), the frequency drops to 25-30%.
• Players with high first-serve percentages and aces per match have 50%+ of their sets featuring tie-breaks.

Winning Percentage on Serve in Tie-Breaks

• ATP players win 75-80% of their service points in tie-breaks.
• Top servers (e.g., Isner, Kyrgios, Rybakina) win over 85% of their first-serve points.
• Players losing their first service point (mini-break) recover it 45-50% of the time.

Performance of Top ATP Players in Tie-Breaks

• Novak Djokovic: 65.5% career tie-break win rate, known for mental resilience.
• Roger Federer: 65.4% career win rate, excelling under pressure.
• John Isner: 61.1% win rate, reaching 500 career tie-break wins.
• Jannik Sinner (2024): Leading ATP with a 75.8% win rate in tie-breaks.

Key Trading Takeaways for ATP Matches:

• Backing the favourite (on serve) is a strong strategy due to their dominance in service points. Momentum and statistical analysis are key here and will be discussed in examples later.
• Laying the favourite with value before the tie-break can work since underdogs win 35-40% of tie-breaks, making the odds often mispriced.

Like my Favourite Strategy in the Members Area, favourite odds can be pushed very low due to over-confidence in the market. This creates value and can be very profitable. Compare SP (Starting Price) to current odds before the tie-break – if favourite odds are equal to or less than SP, there is value in the odds and laying the favourite is a solid strategy. This can also be applied in WTA.

These two strategies (backing the server or laying the favourite) are opposite sides of the same coin but both are successful if used as advised.

Statistical Insights on Tie-Break Performance in WTA Tennis

WTA tie-breaks differ significantly from ATP due to weaker serves, more breaks of serve, and higher unpredictability. The key statistical differences include:

• Lower First-Serve Winning Percentages: WTA players win 55-65% of first-serve points, compared to 75-80% in ATP.
• Frequent Mini-Breaks: WTA players hold serve less consistently, leading to more service breaks during tie-breaks.
• Psychological Swings: Many WTA players struggle under pressure, leading to momentum shifts and frequent comebacks.

Best Tie-Break Performers in WTA Tennis (2023-2024)

• Elena Rybakina: 73.6% first-serve points won, strong under pressure.
• Aryna Sabalenka: 72.9% first-serve points won, aggressive return game.
• Zheng Qinwen: 73.7% first-serve points won, emerging as a top performer.
• Caroline Garcia: Highest break-point save percentage (65.4%), mentally strong.

Key Trading Takeaways for WTA Matches:

• Lay the first server in a tie-break due to the high probability of early mini-breaks.
• Back the player who wins the first two points, as early momentum plays a key role in WTA tie-breaks.
• Lay a player leading 4-2 or 5-3, as nerves often cause them to struggle closing sets.

The 2 Most Profitable Tie-Break Trading Strategies

Based on statistical analysis and market trends, the two most profitable strategies for trading tie-breaks are:

1. Lay the Player Leading 4-2 or 5-3 (WTA)

• Why it Works: Players leading by a big margin in tie-breaks often experience nerves, allowing their opponents to recover.
• Supporting Data:
  • ATP: 60%+ chance of a comeback attempt at 4-2 or 5-3.
  • WTA: High frequency of momentum shifts and mental collapses in closing moments.
• Execution:
  • If a player leads 4-2 or 5-3, lay them at lower odds.
  • If the opponent wins one or two points in a row, exit for a profit.
  • If the leader closes out the set, cut losses early.

2. Lay the Favourite Before the Tie-Break Starts (WTA)

• Why it Works: Favourites are often overvalued in tie-break scenarios, especially if they struggled on serve during the set.
• Supporting Data:
  • ATP: Underdogs win 35-40% of tie-breaks.
  • WTA: Frequent momentum swings mean even big favourites can falter.

• Execution:
  • Before the tie-break starts, lay the favourite at lower odds.
  • If the underdog wins early points, exit for a profit.
  • If the favourite starts strong, hedge losses early.

Two More WTA-Specific Strategies

1. Laying the player serving at 0-3 in the tie-break can be a good plan. Preferably lay when the underdog is about to play the first of her two serves. If the favourite moves to 0-4, the losses are small.

• I also like to lay the player serving at 5-4. They so often, in WTA especially, fail to hold both their service points. If they go to 5-5 it gives a decent price move and if they go to 6-4, the move against you is not big.  

Additional Strategies for WTA And ATP

1. Statistically, a player who has just lost serve (mini-break) is more likely to lose the next point. Use this to make quick profits throughout the tie-break.

• Backing the favourite at 6-6 is worthwhile, especially on their serve. The match cannot be decided on this point, but the rewards can be high. If the favourite wins the point to make it 7-6, wait for the next point before hedging. If the favourite wins it, they take the set and if they lose, we hedge for no loss at 7-7. Please note that prices may be volatile at these pressure points so use smaller stakes.

Tie-Break Points To Avoid:

1. Match points and set points, especially when the leading player is serving.
2. When a player is leading 4-1, 5-1, 6-1 or 5-2, 6-2 do not bet against them.
3. Earlier points in tie-breaks carry less risk (less volatile), so if you’re risk-averse or new to trading, please avoid the later points and stick to pre-tie-break bets such as back the favourite when serving in ATP or lay the server in WTA.

Conclusion

Tie-breaks in both ATP and WTA provide high-volatility opportunities for traders. By leveraging statistical insights, traders can exploit market inefficiencies. The two most profitable strategies—laying the player leading 4-2 or 5-3 and laying the favourite before the tie-break starts—offer the highest probability of success. Understanding player tendencies, match context, and trading discipline will help maximize profits in this high-stakes betting market.

Examples:

Backing the favourite pre-tie-break:

Shelton should be favoured in tie-breaks due to his powerful serve. Nakashima was serving first so this is a great opportunity to back Shelton before the tie-break started:

Shelton gets the early mini break and goes on to dominate the tie-break. Simple but effective.

COMESANA V MOCHIZUKI

Always look for matches that are close, with players in a close match obviously much more likely to go to a tie-break. Comesana v Mochizuki looked promising, so I kept an eye on it.

The promising element in this match was that Comesana was playing better but Mochizuki was keeping it close, winning some tight points and getting himself out of sticky situations. It was only a matter of time before his all-out aggression on crucial points would falter.

Serving percentages and overall stats were in Comesana’s favour, so backing him would be the right option again.

It went to tie-break and Comesana went on to gain a significant lead and good profit along with it:

Indeed, the opportunity presented itself in the second set too, but Comesana’s odds were too low to offer value at that stage, while his opponent still looked shaky on serve so avoiding this tie-break would be a good decision.

BACKING THE CURRENT FAVOURITE AT THE START OF THE TIE-BREAK

In this match we had a decision because the favourite was unclear going into the tie-break. Moutet was the pre-match favourite, but his play was erratic, so Blockx became the narrow, but rightful, favourite before the tie-break.

Moutet v Blockx: Stats were in favour of Blockx leading to the tie-break:

Moutet is still struggling as the set comes closer to tie-break:

This is a great scenario as there is obvious momentum with Blockx.

Before the tie-break starts, Blockx becomes the favourite in the match at 1.89 so I back him.

Moutet was the favourite at the start of the match, but his overall play was not effective to this point. If Moutet had remained the favourite, I would have layed him.

25% profit was made from backing Blockx:

A word of warning: After I hedged, Moutet came back to take the set, so don’t let trades run too long unless you have very good reason!

LAYING THE PRE-MATCH FAVOURITE AT THE START OF THE TIE-BREAK.

Alexandrova v Linette is looking good to hit the tie-break. Overall, Linette is having the better of it. Apart from one game, she’s comfortable on serve. With odds of about 1.75, I will lay Alexandrova if it gets to tie-break.

I have layed Alexandrova for 40 before the tie-break. Remember to get the bet on quickly as there is no change of ends or break between the 12^th and 13^th games.

I had to wait quite late to get a decent profit. I could have traded at 2-1 in the break, or I could have traded out with a small loss on the 6^th point, but I had confidence in Linette from the start of the tie-break, so I stuck with it and profited around 20% late on.

Final Advice

Trading tie-breaks is often about momentum, which often carries into the tie-break as there’s no change of ends and no time for a player under pressure to compose themselves or take a well-timed ‘bathroom break’.

If you intend to use the 4-2/5-3 strategy, don’t lay if the player has gone from 2-0 down to 2-4 because the momentum is against you.

These strategies must be used with an element of common sense too.

Watching a match on a live stream is important – I use bet365 for almost all my streaming. Sky Sports in the UK and Ireland is also very valuable as they have rights to almost all major tournaments this year.

My personal favourite strategy is to back the favourite at the start of tie-breaks (ATP) if the value hasn’t been taken out. This is not statistically the most successful strategy in the eBook but it’s easy to apply and plenty profitable in the right circumstances.

Try all the strategies given and decide on your favourite.

Use small stakes, especially when trading later points in the tie-break.

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Patrick.