Who are the Favourites and Dark Horses in this year’s final Major?
The final Major of the 2024 season will begin play in New York on Monday evening at 4pm GMT.
In this article, we will break down the draw, quarter-by-quarter, then take a look at the best bets for the tournament. We will also pick out the most anticipated matches from the first round on Monday and Tuesday.
QUARTER 1
Jannik Sinner is the top seed in this year’s Open and will begin his quest for a second major title (won Australia 2024) against American Mackenzie McDonald. A tricky second round opponent could be another American Alex Michelsen who is playing in the final of Winston Salem on Saturday night and is in very good form. If Sinner can get through the early rounds, he is likely to meet Tommy Paul in the last 16. Paul is seeded number 14 in the draw and is lined up to play Lorenzo Sonego in round one. Coincidentally, Sonego is Michelsen’s opponent in the aforementioned final of Winston Salem. If Sonego wins that final, he would be one of very few active players to have won titles on all four surfaces.
The favourite to meet Sinner in the quarter final is Daniil Medvedev. Medvedev has fallen short of expectation this year but a clash with Sinner in a mouth-watering prospect as the Russian has a 7-5 advantage in an always competitive rivalry. Medvedev will meet Dusan Lajovic in the first round and will meet Fabian Marozsan or Hamad Medjedovic in the second round. A potentially explosive meeting of Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas could be on the cards if both make the last 16.
QUARTER TWO
Carlos Alcaraz heads the second quarter and is scheduled to play Li Tu of Australia in the first round. Alcaraz has already won Wimbledon and the French Open in 2024, and has already won one US Open back in 2022. To win his third Slam of the year Alcaraz will need to beat Denis Shapovalov or Botic van de Zandschulp in the second round before a likely meeting with Jack Draper of the United Kingdom. The bottom half of this section sees seeds Hubert Hurkacz and Alex De Minaur fight it out to play Alcaraz in the quarter final. Although Hurkacz is not long back from injury, he showed no sign of fatigue when he last played in Cincinnati and Montreal. Hurkacz has a relatively easy opener against Timofey Skatov while De Minaur must face home player Marcos Giron.
QUARTER THREE
A very competitive quarter sees Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune do battle for the a quarter final spot. Zverev, who had a good run to the semi final in Cincinnati will take on Emil Ruusuvuori for a chance to play either Alexandre Muller of France or Adam Walton of Australia. Given his form, Zverev should make light work of both. Things get tougher after that with potential clashes with Rune and then Reilly Opelka, Lorenzo Musetti or Pablo Carreno Busta all possible last 16 opponents.
All going to form, Zverev will meet Ruud in the quarter final but the Norwegian does not have an easy route. After playing qualifier Yunchaokete Yu of China in his opener, the Geneva champion will have to steer his way past Gael Monfils or Diego Schwartzman. Monfils is capable of a surprise, but over 3 sets, Ruud will be confident. Alexander Bublik is a likely and dangerous 3rd round opponent. The man from Kazakhstan can beat anyone on his day and I’d bet on him to take a set off Ruud, but ultimately not the match. Matteo Berrettini and Ugo Humbert will be among the contenders in the last 16 for the right to play Zverev in the quarter finals. This is certainly the quarter where we’re likely to have a few surprises and maybe a dark horse for the tournament.
QUARTER FOUR
Novak Djokovic (2) and Andrey Rublev (6) are the top seeds in the final quarter. Djokovic will play Radu Albot in the first round. This will be the Serbian’s first match since defeating Carlos Alcaraz in the Paris Olympics final just 3 weeks ago. Although it hasn’t been a year laden with trophies, the 24-time major winner will take huge confidence from beating Alcaraz who looked destined to win that Olympic gold medal. Awaiting Nole in the second round will likely be Jan Lennard Struff, while a third round opponent could be recent Montreal champion Alexei Popyrin. Djokovic has reported no injury concerns leading up to the Open so he should navigate to the fourth round where likely opponents could be Ben Shelton, Dominic Thiem or Frances Tiafoe.
Rublev, who will be aiming to meet Djokovic in the quarters, faces Thiago Seyboth Wild in the first round with the winner to meet Christopher Eubanks or Arthur Rinderknech in the second round. Potential third round opponents include Jiri Lahecka and Marton Fucsovics, while awaiting Rublev in the last 16 are in-form Grigor Dimitrov or Alejandro Davidovic Fokina. Rublev should carry confidence into the tournament having reached the final in Montreal, but ultimately, the quarter final is likely to be his last stand, where he will likely lose to Djokovic.
THE ODDS
Its no surprise to see Alcaraz at the top of the betting table at 3.3 on the Betfair Exchange, followed closely by Djokovic (4) and Sinner (4.9)
I will have a one point bet on Sinner who I believe can beat Alcaraz in the semi finals, and possibly a 5 set win against Djokovic in the final.
Zverev and Fritz have a good chance to reach a semi final given their early draws and could meet in the quarter finals. Zverev at odds of 11 and Fritz at odds of 80 could be dark horses.
Hurkacz , currently trading at 240 is an outside bet that I like while Medvedev could make his fourth final if Sinner has a bad day at the office. Medvedev is currently 19.5 on the exchange.
FIRST ROUND MATCHES TO LOOK FORWARD TO
Musetti v Opelka
Sonego v Paul
Tsitsipas v Kokkinakis
Tabilo v Goffin